Survival rates

[dragonflyjewels]

Just done some analyses on the numbers shown on howmanyleft for 2020 Qtr 1, and it makes very sad reading:




I've combined taxed and sorn figures, and manual and auto for each model, plus all the limited/special/SE numbers - these will mostly be two tones, but presumably also include the Paris Edition. None can be relied on as fact as there are many anomalies - for instance the GTs were supposed to be limited to 250 yet at one stage showed 353.
As you can see, the Celebrations have the best survival rate whilst the ES is lowest. The poor survival of turbos can partly be attributed to them being broken for their engines. I suspect with many it was a case of the turbo being too expensive to repair/replace when it failed.
Cars like our rescue Celebration, R2, which was a cat c write off until very recently and is now on sorn, will pop back up in the figures for the quarter they get a V5 issued. Ones like James' launch car which went into storage before the sorn system started will also pop back in if rescued. The theory was that the owner had died a long time ago so any attempt by dvla to prosecute the owner for not sorning it would have fallen on very deaf ears !
I suppose it's possible that there are still a few of the 1200 in dry storage somewhere but as they disappeared off the radar 26 years ago most if not all are undoubtedly long gone.

[MisterH]

That makes some very interesting reading, but I wouldn't be too downhearted. You see, cars that are off the radar, i.e. haven't been sorn or are sorn, are not necessarily gone. I went to view an Audi 80 quattro in Newbury once and the guy had 4 quattro models in his shed which he was sitting on, all unknown to the DVLA. There are cars pulled out of places all the time which don't exist or haven't existed on the system for a long time, so there is always more than just a chance that there are more out there, I am quite sure it is a certainty, and it actually makes me a little excited for what will be found.

I just dream of opening up a garage and finding an Izuzu Piazza, 80 quattro, Celica GT4 or some other rare car that is just covered in dust and needs a recommission, and I am sure there are cars like that out there.

It is sad that we have lost so many, but it just means we are even more (special/weird/dedicated/oddball - delete as fit)!


So what's the specialty about the Paris Blue Edition 480 and a 480 that is Paris Blue? I get the impression Paris blue was offered outside the edition, in some guises, it is one of my favourite colours, but it depends on how purply it looks


It's somewhat ironic now the Celebration seems like the default 480, with any other model being a rarer sight, as the special models are often the more preserved ones...

[dragonflyjewels]

The Paris edition was launched here in 1991 along with the new colour, Paris Blue. The all leather interior was bluey-grey and jade green, and it had a Momo steering wheel with a colour-matching insert. It was identified on the outside by jade green stripes on the rubbing strips and bumpers, instead of black, plus a Limited Edition badge. There are various photos of examples on the forum as well as on the main club site's gallery. One of our members even owned two of them.
Maybe one will come out of long-term store at some point in the future. Personally, I have never seen one either in the metal or offered for sale.

[Alan 480]

these are not 'atypical' for a main-stream car.

if you did the same for any other car from era probably the same? try looking for a 'standard' Sierra, pretty poor, plenty of Cossie (well not those stolen) and in same way Excort XR3 etc

it was not helped when Volvo/Ford ditched so many spares when the cars were ten years old making repairs 'difficult' for the average owner?

[brinkie]

Definitely the luxury spec and higher powered cars tend to survive more than the poverty spec.
On a total of 1732 surviving Ford Sierra registrations, there is one (1) Ford Sierra 1.3 left roadworthy in The Netherlands which has originally been sold here. I've got access to those figures through our DVLA (RDW) which offers an interface to their database with open access to anyone. It contains no personal data, just the cars, and shows all registrations, also those SORNed, rotting away in a barn or scrapped privately but not yet cancelled.

Sometimes cars emerge with a set of pre-2001 license plates on them, which means they haven't been on the road for 20 years or more.
The owner of the last surviving basic spec Sierra in The Netherlands knows this and puts the old plates on the car when on display
https://www.flickr.com/photos/peterolthof/43138505475/
Number of surviving Ford Escort, which sold here by the numbers: 4903. But only 115 1.1, 133 1.3 (Mk1, 2 and 3) and 373 1.4 (all Mk4 Escort). There are 1002 Escort 1.6 left which is more than their smaller engined siblings combined. 275 registrations of Escort RS.

Today there were 1836 Volvo 440, 507 Volvo 460 and 888 Volvo 480 registrations left. Especially the numbers of the 460 are dwindling rapidly.
Volvo 300-series: 1562.
For comparison, number of surviving Volvo 700-series: 2144; 900-series: 5741; 850: 4658. They've been built in larger numbers though.

[jifflemon]

Today there were 1836 Volvo 440, 507 Volvo 460 and 888 Volvo 480 registrations left. Especially the numbers of the 460 are dwindling rapidly.
Volvo 300-series: 1562.
For comparison, number of surviving Volvo 700-series: 2144; 900-series: 5741; 850: 4658. They've been built in larger numbers though.

Genuinely surprised we've more 480's than the Netherlands!

[dragonflyjewels]

There were more 480s sold in the UK than anywhere else. I suspect the attrition rate in the Netherlands is quite a lot lower.

[MisterH]

Anyone Remember the Sierra 2.0iS? Basically the Sierra competitor to the Cavalier SRi, all but forgotten now, buts still a couple around.


Still must stay positive, never know what may be pulled out of a barn next...

[brinkie]

The good news concerning the number of 480 left in The Netherlands: the attrition rate is slowing down. Though since last week there have been 8 registrations cancelled, so that's not so good news, and I've not taken into account that a number of registrations have been cancelled with export status (usually a way of scrapping without the hassle of going through official channels). These figures I have collected the past years using the same method of information gathering:
September 2015: 1107 registrations (including export status)
November 2016: 1062 registrations (including export status)
October 2017: 963 registrations
April 2018: 949 registrations
Sep. 2019: 895 registrations
28 Sep. 2020: 859 registrations
These numbers are a bit skewed, some cars exist on paper only (scrapped long ago but never reported), or have been SORNed awaiting to be cannibalised.

[travelman]

Well,I have a black 2 litre K Reg with red dipstick which will not be going back on the road,although it is on sorn.
It is past redemption unless there is a lottery winner out there.I bought it for spares as partially vandalised and I have
taken bits off it myself.
So that will be that odd one off the list!

[JohnTurbo]

Sadly maybe as many as 50% of the sorned examples are really dead.

The lack of Turbos is obvious and a real shame. That would have been the "Cosworth" model to look after one would have expected.

The metallics also seemed to resist corrosion better - perhaps more layers of paint.

[brinkie]

The lack of Turbos is obvious and a real shame. That would have been the "Cosworth" model to look after one would have expected.

Damn Renault 5 folks.

[MisterH]

The lack of Turbos is obvious and a real shame. That would have been the "Cosworth" model to look after one would have expected.

Damn Renault 5 folks.

Was that a problem on the continent as well?

[dragonflyjewels]

Just found the carlogbook website which tells me the horrifying fact that only 242 480s have a current MoT. An accurate breakdown is not possible as MoT's tend to just be recorded as Volvo 480 with no model detail. I'm assuming that this website doesn't cross-reference with dvla's records of model information.
Of course, many cars still alive and well are likely to have an expired MoT this year - our GT has just gone to bed for the winter with an expired MoT and I'm sure the pandemic has kept a lot of 480s off the road. The 6 month extension no longer applies and the end of lockdown probably came too late for a lot of owners to bother for what was left of a summer with most meetings cancelled.
I suspect a large percentage of the 242 will be daily drivers. Hopefully next summer will see numbers rise again but I don't suppose it will be by very much.

[Alan 480]

Just found the carlogbook website which tells me the horrifying fact that only 242 480s have a current MoT. An accurate breakdown is not possible as MoT's tend to just be recorded as Volvo 480 with no model detail. I'm assuming that this website doesn't cross-reference with dvla's records of model information.
Of course, many cars still alive and well are likely to have an expired MoT this year - our GT has just gone to bed for the winter with an expired MoT and I'm sure the pandemic has kept a lot of 480s off the road. The 6 month extension no longer applies and the end of lockdown probably came too late for a lot of owners to bother for what was left of a summer with most meetings cancelled.
I suspect a large percentage of the 242 will be daily drivers. Hopefully next summer will see numbers rise again but I don't suppose it will be by very much.

that 242 out of 1470 seems a very low percentage, surely more than that are still 'runners' what was the rough % on SORN at start of year?

I have the red one on SORN and the plan was to run it in the winter, keeping the salt away from the other one!

[dragonflyjewels]

At the start of the year only 24% were taxed, leaving 76% sorned

[brinkie]

Damn Renault 5 folks.

Was that a problem on the continent as well?

Yep. Still is, though both the Renault 5 and the 480 Turbo are becoming extinct.

[jifflemon]

Just to bump this one back up.....

I've been tracking Turbos. Stalking may be a better phrase.....

The how many left figures are wildly optimistic. I've got 87 are on the list - and that's a list from 3 years of stalking....

At least 1/3rd of that list aren't coming back. Shall do an update on current MOT'd cars later (it takes time!)

There's the chance that I've missed one, maybe two.... but in the last year I've only added a single "new" entry to the list.

[WillC9303]

Is there any good reason why the TTs and Celebs have such higher survival rates compared to the other trim levels?
One thing I have noticed is that the earlier 1.7 TTs are described by the DVLA as 'Special Editions' and the later 2.0s as 'Limited Editions'. Not sure why that is either.

[jifflemon]

Possibly because they're later cars and thus have another few years before rust becomes terminal.

Possibly because they're seen as more desirable (and whole lot LESS expensive to maintain than a Turbo)